Can He Lead Managers Through the Playoffs and Into Championships?

As fantasy football managers make numerous waiver claims for Week 16, hoping to continue their runs in the fantasy playoffs, should Atlanta Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier be a priority addition off the waiver wire vs. the Baltimore Ravens?

Tyler Allgeier Explodes for 139 yards and a Score in Week 15

The Falcons have been one of the more disappointing teams in 2022, especially with their skill players, such as Kyle Pitts and Drake London. However, momentum might be turning in a favorable direction for Allgeier, who might have the highest floor of any waiver wire option you’ll find at running back this week.

I wondered what the Falcons’ offense would look like under Desmond Ridder, and while the passing game struggled, Allgeier had his best game yet, rushing for 139 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries in the Falcons’ loss to the Saints.

The rookie from BYU has averaged 10.7 carries in 69.8 yards since Week 9, with five of the six games with 50 yards or more on the ground. Not only did he receive three more carries than Cordarrelle Patterson last week, but it’s been a virtual 50-50 split over the last four weeks despite Patterson being viewed as the clear-cut top option.

The downside with Allgeier is that he is a near zero in the receiving category. He has 11 targets in the entire year and only two games with more than a single target. Unfortunately, that will always leave him in the touchdown-dependent category. Week 15 was Allgeier’s best from a fantasy-points standpoint at 22.6 PPR (RB8), and it was the first time since Week 9 he had recorded double-digit points.

Atlanta has a methodical philosophy on offense, which is the kindest way possible to say they are slow and boring. Despite going no-huddle in neutral game scripts — the sixth-highest percentage (14.5%) — Atlanta has the sixth-slowest pace of play (29.1 seconds/snap) and uses all of that time to rush for the second-highest percentage in the NFL (56.5%), just behind the Chicago Bears (56.6%).

But this also means guaranteed volume, and with double-digit carries in his last three games, should Allgeier be a priority waiver wire acquisition for fantasy football?

Should Allgeier Be a Top Waiver Wire Priority for Fantasy Managers in Week 16?

The initial inclination by many is to target the Indianapolis Colts situation. The loss of Jonathan Taylor, likely for the season, has thrust Zack Moss into the spotlight after leading the team in carries (24). However, I would exercise caution before putting all of my eggs in one basket, as the activation of Jordan Wilkins from the practice squad to the 53-man roster, along with Deon Jackson’s presence to me, signals an annoying, three-person committee.

MORE: Is Deon Jackson or Zack Moss a Waiver Wire Add in Week 16?

I would put down my top running back waiver wire options as Allgeier, Chuba Hubbard, and Khalil Herbert, who is coming off of IR. With that said, Hubbard and Herbert will split carries for their respective teams, whereas Allgeier appears to, at this point, have the No. 1 role in Atlanta.

The problem for Allgeier, though, is he is facing a difficult defense. The Ravens, over the last four weeks, are fifth in points allowed (17.68 PPR), and first in DVOA, EPA, and success rate.

For me, I would undoubtedly pick up Allgeier off the Week 16 waiver wire even if I wasn’t necessarily planning on playing him, as he is a valuable addition to a depth chart. There are higher-upside players such as Herbert or Hubbard, but all three need to be added to playoff-bound fantasy football rosters.

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