This Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction looks at a Kansas City team battling for the number one seed in the AFC. Vegas is a long time division rival and would like nothing more than to make that a difficult reality for the Chiefs. Jarret Stidham came in and lit up what had been a stout 49ers defense. How will that impact this one?
Stidham’s performance presents a new wrinkle into the game environment we’ll examine as we search for value in the Chiefs vs. Raiders odds based on the Behavior Bets sports betting model projection.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction and Odds | Week 18
- Spread: Raiders +9.5
- Moneyline: Chiefs -455
- Over/Under: Under 52.5
Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction
The Behavior Bets sports betting model went 18-14 in Week 17. For the season, the model is 137-68-6* on bets against the spread, on the moneyline, and in player props. Let’s see if we can keep it going starting with this Kansas City vs. Las Vegas prediction.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit, the best bet tracking app on the market.
The top five teams in scoring rate in the NFL have shifted quite a bit from the beginning of the season. There has been one constant, however. In a year the Chiefs were supposed to take a step back after losing Tyreke Hill, and the other AFC West teams bolstered their defenses, they have been as dominant as ever.
Averaging .931 points per minute of possession time this season, Patrick Mahomes and the crew have been better than ever. Before the season, on our show Football Insiders, Trey Wingo speculated this might be the best Chiefs team Mahomes has had around him. Mahomes leads the league in yards by 400+, touchdowns by six, and his team is fighting for the number one seed in the AFC.
In going up against an eliminated Raiders defense, they will see a defense giving up .737 points per minute of opponent possession time, good enough for only 17th in the league. They were the latest victims of Brock Purdy (yes, you read that correctly) and lost yet another game in overtime.
The Behavior Bets model projects the Chiefs to score 26 points in this matchup. In a vacuum, they were projected to score over 30 points. The Raiders, being the primary factor in the Chiefs’ offensive environment, were only able to knock four points off of that score.
The Unknown of Jarrett Stidham
The Raiders’ offense was the source of a lot of conversation this past week regarding the handling of quarterback Derek Carr. Jarrett Stidham got the start last week in his place. Prior to that, since the bye week, the Raiders were decaying by 33% in scoring rate week over week, averaging .74 points per minute of possession time.
Stidham came in and led the offense to its second-highest scoring rate of the season at 1.2 points per minute of possession time, and best since Thanksgiving Weekend. The unknown here is, can that continue?
Gardner Minshew entered in relief of Jalen Hurts for the Eagles and put up 34 points against the Cowboys. The following week, he put up 10 points against the Saints. The backup seems to come in hot and then get figured out. The best thing we can do is look at the Chiefs’ defense and get a sense of what they’re likely to give up.
Since their bye week, the Chiefs’ defense has given up .767 points per minute of opponent possession time. That figure has been getting worse at 21% rate week over week. Jarret Stidham may not have a repeat of last week when he went against a much better defense, but we aren’t going to see a 24-point fall as we did from Minshew, either.
Raiders are projected to score 23 points in this one, all things considered, and cover the 9.5-point spread, but the Chiefs win the one seed.
Chiefs Raiders Prediction: Chiefs 26, Raiders 23